Forecasts, models, and public scorecards
Each competition gets its own daily dashboard: match probabilities from our house model and the market side by side, standings, and a running scorecard of who has actually been right. Grades are published before results, never after.
National Women’s Soccer League
2026 season, live: match forecasts, the championship race, and the model-versus-market scorecard.
English Premier League
The 2026–27 campaign: match probabilities, the table, and Golden Boot tracking.
National Football League
Weekly win probabilities and spreads from the DfT game model, graded against the closing line.
The complete tournament archive
Every game, bracket, and forecast grade from the 2026 World Cup — the daily screen that started it all. Spain, champions.
How the scorecards work
Every forecast is stamped before kickoff and graded after the final whistle with a proper scoring rule (Brier score), alongside the betting market and public models. The point is not to beat the market every week — it is to show honestly how hard that is, and where a careful model earns its keep. The method essays live on the newsletter.