Data for Thought Data for Thought

Sports Forecasts and Analyses

Sports are a perfect lab for learning what data can and cannot predict. They produce a steady stream of measurable outcomes, and they make it hard to hide from a bad forecast. Looking for patterns in historical data also makes the games more fun to watch and seasons more fun to follow.

Championship probability trends for the NWSL contenders
NWSL

National Women’s Soccer League

Match forecasts, the championship race, and the scorecard.

Live · Updated dailyOpen Dashboard →
NFL teams mapped by offensive and defensive strength
NFL

National Football League

Weekly win probabilities and spreads, graded against the closing line.

Season begins September 10Open Dashboard →
MLB

Major League Baseball

Daily win probabilities, the market vs. our model, graded against the closing line.

Live · Updated dailyOpen Dashboard →
WNBA

Women’s National Basketball Association

Nightly win probabilities from our DSWNBA model, the market, and Kalshi, graded against results.

Live · Updated dailyOpen Dashboard →
A Premier League game card with win probabilities from several models
Premier League

English Premier League

Match probabilities, the table, and the Golden Boot race.

Season begins August 21Open Dashboard →
The World Cup Golden Boot race, won by Mbappé
World Cup 2026

2026 World Cup Archive

Every game, bracket, and grade from the 2026 tournament. Spain, champions.

Complete · Tournament archiveOpen Dashboard →