Sports Forecasts and Analyses

Sports are a perfect lab for learning what data can and cannot predict. They produce a steady stream of measurable outcomes, and they make it hard to hide from a bad forecast. Looking for patterns in historical data also makes the games more fun to watch and seasons more fun to follow. I build models for the NWSL, Premier League, NFL, and World Cup. These dashboards are where I publish forecasts, compare them with the market, track how the models perform, and explore how teams, players, and competitions change over time. Along the way, I explain what the numbers can and cannot tell us.